First things first: All four candidates in the wide-open race for the District 4 seat on Santa Barbara City Council are confirmed for a Final Arguments conversation with the genial host on Tuesday.

(Full disclosure: Intriguing from the start, the contest also is hugely consequential because District 4 is where Newsmakers Global Headquarters resides. With much of our vast executive staff still undecided, I figured we might not be alone, so it seems an auspicious time to bring the quartet of rivals together for one last dance).

Send us questions you’d like Newsmakers to ask when we sit down with Devon Wardlow, Genevieve Taft-Vazquez, Jason Dominguez and Monte Wilson. We’re going to try to avoid re-litigating rent control, State Street and budget reserves for the 800th time this campaign season. So if there’s something you’d like to know that you haven’t heard raised, please email it to newsmakerswithjr@gmail.com.

The future lies ahead. It’s a hoary cliché, found on Page 286 of the Political Writer’s Big Book of Bromides and Banalities, that two weeks is a lifetime in politics.

Just in recent days, city campaigns have been roiled by the sudden appearance of referendum petitions seeking to repeal rent control and the State Street Master Plan, the Indy’s shock endorsement of Eric Friedman for mayor, and the pointed questioning of candidates by former City Administrator Jim Armstrong at a Rotary Club event last Friday.

Nonetheless, pundits gotta pundit. And reading the tea leaves as of today, there appear to be three basic scenarios for how City Hall’s leadership will shake out after the Nov. 3 election.

With a majority of the seven-member council’s seats up for grabs, the new mayor and three new council members will join liberal incumbents Wendy Santamaria (District 1) and Oscar Gutierrez (District 3), along with the more moderate Mike Jordan (District 2).

Against that backdrop, here are the three most likely configurations of the next council, from most to least likely.

1. The People’s Republic of Santa Barbara

In a year when Democrats nationally are poised for an anti-Trump “blue wave,” party organizers are targeting 40 local races in Santa Barbara County, working to install their favored liberal candidates. In the city, termed-out council member Kristen Sneddon leads the ticket.

2. Revenge of the Business Community

The referendum campaigns targeting rent control and the downtown master plan are the most visible signs of a broader backlash by real estate and other business interests against City Hall’s recent left-wing policies. Those interests have poured considerable sums into their preferred candidates, starting with Eric Friedman for mayor. If things break their way, this would be their preferred lineup:

3. The Status Quo, Sustained

Santamaria and Gutierrez were on the opposite side of Jordan in several key votes in recent years that shaped crucial decisions on rent control, State Street and the city budget by narrow 4-to-3 tallies, as lefty policies prevailed and generated repercussions that include the current referenda. It’s possible that City Hall wakes up on Nov. 4 with a similar ideological configuration.

Joyce packs the house. Several hundred of Joyce Dudley’s closest friends rose as one to honor her on Saturday, as The Colleges of Law presented its Distinguished Alumni Award to one of the most consequential district attorneys in Santa Barbara County history.

“The Colleges of Law made everything else possible,” an alternately beaming and teary-eyed Joyce told the champagne brunch crowd gathered in the Reagan Room of the Hilton Santa Barbara Beachfront Resort (aka The Fess Parker).

After recalling how she went to school at night while raising kids by day — “breastfeeding with one arm and turning pages with another” - she closed with her all-purpose, bottom line life advice: “Work hard and be kind.”

Images: Igniter media; Joyce Dudley photo by Tracy Lehr for KEYT-TV.

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