Lurching to 100 Days: Trump's Support Is Collapsing, Amid Opposition to Agenda, Fears of Recession

The reality TV show president is sure to holler "fake news" about a series of consistently devastating new polls. But it's clear he's misread his mandate and overreached with unwanted MAGA policies

Donald Trump is set to mark his 100th day in office in Michigan this week, with a big and predictably vainglorious, political rally.

As he indulges in hyperbole and celebration, however, he’ll do so burdened by the worst approval rating of any president in history at this symbolic point in their term.

In the past several days, a series of high-quality surveys published by major news organizations show a remarkably consistent — and, for Trump, decidedly unwelcome - plunge in public support since his inauguration just 14 weeks ago.

Trump began his term with an overall favorable rating of about +9 points, according to the New York Times’s aggregated daily tracking feature of major polls. Now, however, the positive and negative lines of public opinion have crossed for Trump and his standing with the public is -9, the inverse of where it was in January

The polltakers report that since independent media polling began during the Eisenhower Era, no president has been viewed so unfavorably as Trump — even Trump himself, who previously held the dubious record for the worst 100-day polling, in his first term.

The new surveys by the Times, Washington Post and CNN, all show Trump deeply underwater with the public:

(In the weeds methodology note: The polls each were conducted last week, using respondent universes that ranged from 928 to 2,464 randomly selected adults, weighted to accurately reflect demographics, with margins of error from 2 to 2.9 percent The complete Times poll is here; the Washington Post’s survey is here and CNN’s is here.

The worst news for Trump: As a political matter, what is most significant, beyond Trump’s top line unpopularity (he was, after all, re-elected after being convicted of both fraud and sexual assault, not to mention leading a coup attempt, so he’s never been universally beloved) is that sizable majorities of Americans express disapproval about his performance on the economy and immigration, the two signature issues which he wielded to bash and defeat Democratic rival Kamala Harris.

Claiming a mandate he did not earn — he won less than 50 percent of the popular vote — Trump to date has spent much of his second presidency focused on issues that may delight his right-wing base, but have less salience to independent and moderate voters who were crucial to his election, however.

The unplanned and reckless of dismantling of federal agenices, led by the unpopular oligarch Elon Musk; the dismissal of scientists amid the peddling of quack medical theories by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.; the extra-legal deportation and seizure on the streets of immigrants who were in the country legally; the shakedowns of private law firms and universities; the turning of the U.S. Justice Department to the persecution of political enemies; and an ongoing challenge to the authority of the courts have preoccupied Trump - but are not popular with citizens, voters and non-voters alike, according to finding in the three polls.

Likely of concern to Republican members of Congress - who have almost unanimously surrendered their power as representatives of a co-equal branch of government by capitulating to Trump’s seizure of their Article 1 constitutional powers — is the level of disapproval with which Americans view his handling of the economy, a strategy framed by his inconstant trade war, festooned with denunciations and threats aimed at longtime trading partners of the U.S.

Trump’s ratings on handling the economy in the three polls:

Worse for Trump, many Americans now appear to have a dim view of their economic future. The Post poll, the largest and most detailed, asked respondents several additional questions about the economy: Nearly three-fourths (72 percent) said they think a recession is very, or somewhat likely, compared to only 24 percent who said it is not likely. And by a significant ratio — 42-to-31 percent - respondents said Trump’s policies would make the economy weaker, rather than stronger.

From the Post poll

The immigration surprise. Since Trump entered the national political arena in 2015, his paramount campaign issue has been immigration. Astonishingly, once-positive mainstream opinion about his handling of the matter has quickly eroded - in the wake of Trump’s performative and, at times, extra-legal, series of deportations of immigrants, some in the country legally, some not.

The poll findings:

How much will it matter? As a practical matter, the polls, while politically disturbing for Trump, represent only a snapshot in time for an Administration that a) displays little concern (and, often, nasty contempt) for Americans who disagree with its policies and b) still has 1,363 days in office (!) (that’s the minimum, assuming he doesn’t make a bid for an unconstitutional third term).

Still, the rapid decline in Trump’s support may at least goad the elected hordes of Democratic toads and turtles who have hidden in their shells since Inauguration.

At the same time, the dramatic shift in his popularity also is certain to fuel public protest in civic spaces, which already has been growing more visible in recent weeks.

The most crucial political question will be whether GOP elected officials, who have been utterly cowed by Trump, fearful of both political and personal consequences if they dare cross him, will begin to reclaim their independence and stand up in public to express the criticisms so many are reported to voice only in private.

May they be guided by the words of one of the greatest Republicans in history, President Theodore Roosevelt:

“Knowing what's right,” Teddy said, “doesn't mean much unless you do what's right.”

Images: Cross-tab chart (CNN poll); Aggregated tracking chart of major national polls (New York Times); Approve/Disapprove charts drawn from poll cross-tabs; Recession expectation chart (Washington Post)