Happy Thanksgiving from the Turkeys at Newsmakers - with Gratitude for the Pro-Democracy Movement
Ten months into the authoritarian regime of the mob boss president, he's hitting record lows in polling, and men finally have joined women in seeing through his con.
Just over a year ago, a tiny plurality of American voters returned Donald Trump to the White House, setting the stage for an ongoing attack on democracy by the most dangerous, destructive, and disgraceful presidential administration in U.S. history.
Since that day, Newsmakers has sought to serve as Santa Barbara’s most urgent and consistent pro-democracy media outlet. We’ve shouted from the rooftops our alarm about Trump’s attempt to subvert and supplant the world’s oldest constitutional republic with a right-wing strongman regime - while offering full coverage of local heroes who are trying to do something about it.
At the same time, we’ve sustained and grown “Newsmakers TV,” our decade-long local news project, bolstering our weekly roundtables among and between Santa Barbara’s leading journalists with a steady stream of one-on-one interviews with our elected leaders, plus panel discussions that move the needle on key issues like the looming vote on the future of Paseo Nuevo.
As we celebrate Thanksgiving (editor’s note: take the Packers and the points), Hap and I wish sincerely to thank our loyal audience of readers and viewers for your support of our efforts, not only those who found us in the Before Times, but also those who’ve joined our online community in the era of tyranny.
Gracias a todas por su apoyo.
More broadly, we’re lamentably grateful that millions of Americans who backed Trump last year, believing he gave a damn about their lives and families — seem finally to have realized that, in fact, he cares only about his own.
The evidence of Trump Buyer Remorse Syndrome is everywhere, from his historically bad polling, to the dominating Democratic wins in the Nov. 4 election, and that party’s surge over MAGA Republicans in generic ballot support pointing to 2026.
By the numbers. The three charts below detail this collapse in Trump’s support, demonstrating widespread rejection of his policies and actions, including an underreported, hiding-in-plain-sight demographic shift.
They come from the reputable Cook Political Report, which aggregates a rolling daily average of the nation’s 21 most credible political polls, a tracking method that supplies a clear picture of political trends.
The first fever chart shows Trump’s overall rating, signaling steady decline from the early weeks of his term, when the nation was still basically evenly divided, to today, when 56 percent of Americans disapprove of his performance as president, compared to 42 percent who approve — a net negative of minus 14 points.
Next, here is how he fares with women, who had Trump figured out from the jump. Back in March, he had a poor, 42-to-54 percent favorable-to-unfavorable rating; now, the bottom has fallen out, as nearly two-thirds of women express disapproval.
And the surprise clincher: Among men — who long have served as the pillar of Trump’s base, his standing has flipped in nine months: from 54-to-43 percent favorable-to-unfavorable on March 1 (plus 11 points) ) to 46.5-to-51 percent unfavorable-to-favorable (minus 4.5 points), a whopping 15 point net loss. (N.B. the polling streams here crossed in late October, the height of his government shutdown).
It’s worth noting that, across the spectrum, every other demographic sub-group in the polling — Blacks, Latinos, young people, old people, college-educated whites, political independents and, of course, Democrats — have a negative view of Trump. Only two - non-college educated whites and Republicans - still approve of his performance as president, the former narrowly and the latter overwhelmingly.
Patent punditry. Short of a personality and character transplant, it’s hard to imagine Trump reversing this clear and steadfast trend line of public opinion.
Most politicians facing such across-the-board terrible numbers would attempt a course correction; Trump, however, for a decade has shown that he has one, and only one, move - double down on what he’s doing.
This suggests that the drip-drip-drip erosion of support may continue until, at some point — say when his favorable rating hits the low or mid-30s - the craven, servile, and toadying GOP politicians who have helped prop him up begin to desert, in order to protect their own political viability. Once that happens, dynamics in Washington could change consequentially.
For now, of course, Trump remains extremely dangerous, perhaps more so as his dementia deepens and his sociopathology is inflamed in direct proportion to growing dissent. The insensate **shootings of two National Guard members in Washington on Wednesday is precisely the kind of violent provocation that affords him an opportunity to escalate his unprecedented, repressive, and illegal, campaign against cities controlled by Democrats, for example.
That said, it is undeniable that a large majority of Americans now objects to Trump’s gangster government. This represents a necessary, if not yet sufficient, first step in the long, slow political struggle to defeat the cruelty, corruption and incompetence of the extremist movement he has forced and foisted on our country.
As we celebrate the start of holiday season, there is a whiff of hope in the political winds, for the first time since the dreadful day of Trump’s inauguration last January.
And for that we give thanks.
** Correction: An early version of this post, based on an erroneous report, said the two Guardsman had been killed. At post time, they are in critical condition. Newsmakers regrets the error.
Update, Nov. 29: Specialist Sarah Beckstrom died on Thanksgiving Day. Staff Sgt. Andrew Wolfe, the other West Virginia National Guard member shot in the attack, remains in critical condition.
Image: iStock.